US/North Korean Summit

There is a good deal of excitement in the nuclear weapons space about the possibility of a summit between North Korea's Kim Jong Un and U.S. President Donald J. Trump. The invitation was apparently extended to the president by way of a South Korean delegation, which delivered a personal letter to President Trump from Supreme Leader Kim. President Trump agreed immediately to the summit and asked the South Korean delegation to announce his acceptance at a press conference in the White House driveway.

There are a number of reasons to be skeptical of this meeting taking place. The first is that President Trump often agrees to things on the spur of the moment and then later walks those agreements back. His willingness to pass legislation to protect the so-called Dreamers, his endorsement of new gun control laws, and other examples come to mind of his willingness to say yes in the moment and then let the White House staff slowly say no. Already there are reports that the agreed date--before May--may not be possible, the United States may insist on conditions (like the ending of North Korea's nuclear weapons program), and who know what else behind the scenes.

If a summit is offered, accepted, and then eventually not held, Supreme Leader Kim looks like the supplicant who was rejected. If the summit is held and President Trump doesn't get substantial concessions, President Trump will look bad. And Supreme Leader Kim will get the "treatment as an equal" he so deeply craves. So it is in President Trump's interest not to hold the talks--unless real progress can be made. "Real progress" from the U.S. perspective, is an agreement that eventually does away with all of North Korea's nuclear weapons. It is unlikely, however, that North Korea is seriously considering surrendering its nuclear weapons. Under any circumstances.

If a summit were to take place, it would be a very dangerous moment. There would be a considerable risk that President Trump would leave such a meeting humiliated. And one possible result of such an outcome would be a decision by President Trump to launch serious military action against North Korea. War against North Korea would risk hundreds of thousands of South Koreans being killed (the North has thousands of artillery pieces trained on Seoul), many hundreds of thousands of North Korean citizens being killed (and it's not clear to what extent they have any say in whether the regime remains in power--they could, in other words, be innocent by-standers), and the possibility of an attack with nuclear weapons against the United States.