Millennials and Nuclear War
Millennials on War study. Illustrations: Ipsos Interactive Services/Data Visualization Department and Francis Macard.
What do you think is likely to happen in the next ten years? Are you worried? Do you lie awake at night? Do you sometimes get scoffed at when you talk about eliminating nuclear weapons?
If you feel anxious about the future and the likelihood of war, you’re not alone.
The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) conducted a survey recently and the results, I think will shock you. They talked to 16,288 people aged 20–35 across 16 countries between June 29 – October 1, 2019 and asked them questions about war, weapons, and particularly nuclear weapons. What they found is strange, counterintuitive, and perplexing. In the United States we take it for granted that “no one thinks about nuclear war.” It’s something that Congressional staffers will tell you if you press them to get their boss to take a stand on the issue. It’s something that idealists in NGOs say with a sad shake of the head. It’s taken as gospel truth by grey heads in the nuclear weapons community. It is something that the media says when they explain why the issue doesn’t deserve more coverage.
And it is, apparently, completely wrong.
The Red Cross asked if “the existence of nuclear weapons is a threat to humanity”? Eighty percent said yes. Not a bare majority. Not three out of every four. Eighty percent. Around the world. That is stunning agreement on the part of widely diverse people from Asia, Africa, Europe, Latin America, and the United States.
It may be that people who are younger or older than 20-35 see things differently, although I would be surprised if there were really large variations by age. (It’s also possible that the 16 countries chosen weren’t broadly representative of the entire world, by they are drawn from every part of the globe.) But until someone does a closer analysis it appears that for 1.7 billion millennials worldwide there is lopsided agreement that “nuclear weapons are a threat to humanity.”
The Red Cross asked “In your opinion, is the use of nuclear weapons in wars or armed conflicts acceptable under some circumstances, or is it never acceptable?” A whopping 84% said, “It is never acceptable.”
Interestingly, the United States is the country that has the second highest percentage of people who believe it is alright to use nuclear weapons in war. Only Nigerians are more likely to think that if it comes to war it’s acceptable to use nuclear weapons.
Future shock
But the most shocking result occurred when the Red Cross asked millennials to think about the future. More than half—54 percent—believe that it is “likely” that an attack using nuclear weapons will occur within the next decade. More than half of 20 to 35 year olds believe that a nuclear attack is likely within the next ten years. That’s something like 700 million people worldwide.
In keeping with their belief that nuclear weapons should never be used, and that a nuclear war is likely, millennials were in favor—by a strong majority—of eliminating nuclear weapons. Some 64% said that countries that have nuclear weapons should eliminate them.
So if you have ever hesitated to press the importance of eliminating nuclear weapons, forget your hesitation. Be bold. Be confident. Never doubt that you have the right to say “countries which have nuclear weapons should eliminate them.” Because it looks like 1.2 billion millennials agree with you.
You may say to yourself, “Well, that may be so around the world, but it certainly isn’t true here in the United States.” Wrong again. The United States is actually just slightly higher in percentage of millennials who agree that “countries which have nuclear weapons should eliminate them.” Of the 1,000 U.S. citizens surveyed, 65% said nuclear weapons should be eliminated.
Conclusions
I have not finished reading through the full report, with data and breakdown, and I expect to follow up with more later. But for now there are some preliminary conclusions we can draw. First, and most importantly, anxiety about the risk of nuclear war is very high. People around the world are worried. And it is likely that those worries are affecting their expectations, their lives, and their hopes.
Second, those who say that “people don’t think about nuclear weapons” are seriously out of touch with reality. They simply don’t know what they’re talking about.
Third, it appears the United States is out of step with the rest of the world on nuclear weapons. We believe that they are weapons that can legitimately be used in war, while the rest of the world does not.
We (those of us in the United States) often think that what we think is what everyone thinks. Often that’s not the case, but it appears to be especially wrong about nuclear weapons.
People around the world want nuclear weapons eliminated.
[The survey was conducted by the respected survey firm Ipsos, and the full results are available here.]